Behind The Seams: The Future Of Trend Forecasting

Two weeks ago, on a somewhat chilly, unusually rainy day in Los Angeles, the LA fashion and apparel industry gathered for the AFINGO.com’s Behind The Seams conference at Raleigh Studios in historic Hollywood (you could even see the iconic sign in the background).

The conference was an interactive one-day session that covered sustainability and how designers can make their fashion businesses “greener,” how to launch a fashion line in Los Angeles, marketing through social media and the future of trend forecasting.

That day, Afingo present an amazing Trends panel that featured Michael Segal, current CEO of Fred Segal (a niche boutique department store in California), Celebrity & Editorial Fashion Stylist Shane Cisneros, Erin Weinger, the publisher of my favorite Los Angeles blog, Style Section LA, and Fran Sude, the founder of Design Options, a trends forecasting company.

As I had learned from the panel that I’d just spoke on, this was going to be anything but an ordinary session.  To start the session off, Micheal Segal began by asking the audience of 45+ attendees:

What do you hope to get out of this panel today?

In order to illicit answers from the audience, Michael handed out eco-friendly Fred Segal totes. Coveting these, I asked:

How can fashion designers create apparel and accessories that their customers will want before they (the customers) actually know they want it.

The answer he gave:

TRUST YOUR GUT. I knew I would be successful when I learned to trust my gut; forecasting is intuitive.

Michael then proceeded to tell us a recent story:

Three weeks ago, I received a phone call from a FIDM student. She said she’d like to have her own Fred Segal Store (Fred Segal offers designers pop-up or mini store features within its larger store), and I invited her and her husband in next day.  The couple had developed a line called Happiness Is A $10 Tee. Something about her told me to take a chance on them; a week later, she had a store at Fred Segal Santa Monica.

After the story and introduction, Michael asked the panelists to tell the audience how their careers started:

• I’m Chicago born and bred, I’ve always wanted to write. I’m obsessed with writing. I’m also a computer nerd. My site allowed me to combine everything I wanted into a job.  – Erin Wenger, Style Section LA
• I’ve always believed that by doing things you like, you’ll find your true passion. Making a career out of that passion, you’ll find happiness and success. – Fran Sude
• I’m a ballerina turned magazine editor turned red carpet dresser to stars. I wanted to do it all, so I went freelance. – Shane Cisneros

Michael then did something unexpected, something that I’ve only seen Venture Capitalists and Tech Entrepreneurs do…he went open forum! On a white easel, Michael wrote out the overview of the panel:

Experts will give their insights and discuss the “science” of spotting the next big thing and how to tap into the Zeitgeist in order to predict what the consumer will want before they want it.

Is There A SCIENCE To Spotting The Next Big Thing?

If It’s In A Magazine, I’m Done With It – Insights From Shane Cisneros:

1. There’s no formal science, its PASSION.  Passion will always trump science. Ask yourself, “What ideas am I putting out to the world and how are they forming my business?”
2. There isn’t much new in fashion, we’re constantly reinventing the wheel.  It’s about balancing familiarity with new inspirations.
3. As fashion professionals, we are here to serve. It’s not about you; it’s about the clients you serve.
4. Be unique; be an early adopter and establish your niche. The perfect example is Jon Eshaya; he just knows what women want to wear.

Fashion is about reinterpreting what’s been done and accessorizing it in a new way.  The classics survive; the question is how to make this endure. If you’re starting a line, don’t you want your brand to transcend fast trend? – Erin Weinger

The Science Of Selling – Can Forecasting Be Learned Or Is It A Gift?

There are levels. Forecasting is a creative process that can be learned through tools, but you have to have an eye (a voice) — something you feel compelled to share. You have to be able to look across multiple verticals and be conscious of the world around you.  I absorb the world around me and love living in Tomorrowland. – Fran Sude

Insights From Fran Sude:

1. Retailers can track what has sold in the past and breathe new life into it to fit current consumer demand.
2. Colors and details come out of the juniors market.  They work across menswear, womenswear and home interiors.
3. What’s the new, hot color?  There is NO COLOR. It’s what you make it. It’s not about the color; its about the reinvention of the color palette and the way it’s mixed.  Grab attention of the consumer through unusual color palettes.
4. Explore your customers’ environment and communities

The session concluded with Michael referencing BLINK by Malcolm Gladwell and saying, “When you have the ability to control your knowledge, you will know what’s coming next.  You’ll predict it one, two, three times.  You’re now an expert and what you say will happen, will.”

Editor’s Note: Afingo is a business social network for the apparel industry.  Out of all the events, networking functions and industry mixers I’ve attended this year, Afingo’s conference was one of my top five favorite events of 2010. I can’t wait to take part in future events with them.